A household here earns a median income of about $22,000, half the state level. It's a stretch for low-income wage earners to rent available housing. Many of the homes and apartments are only in fair condition. Often, more than one tenant crowds into each bedroom.

Does this sound like Nogales?

This is what University of Arizona students discovered as they conducted a block-by-block survey of Nogales neighborhoods. The team from the Roy P. Drachman Institute at the UA - students Mazakazu Aoe, Sharayah Jimenez and Torsten Anderson and research coordinator Shane Smith - began work last winter.

They presented their findings July 28 to a group of city staff, developers and non-profit organizations at Nogales City Hall.

The researchers surveyed central Nogales south of Western Avenue, last winter, Smith said. They wrapped up their work in mid-June in the Monte Carlo, Valle Verde, Vista Hermosa, Las Lomas and Colonia del Sol neighborhoods and the Mariposa Manor mobile home park.

In central Nogales, they looked at the outside of 1,677 properties and rated 33 percent good, 50 percent fair, 8 percent poor, Smith said. Only three properties were in excellent condition and 8 percent were vacant.

Next, researchers looked at what city residents earn and how much they could pay for rent, the "affordability gap," said Corky Poster, director of the institute.

Physical capacity

Then they surveyed the "physical capacity" of the city to determine where it might squeeze in more affordable housing.

Someone earning $15,000 could afford a rent of only $350, Smith said. But a person with a $38,000 income could pay $850 on rent or a mortgage (figured at 30 percent of income).

In a count of 566 homes for sale in Nogales and Rio Rico in April, researchers found 134 listed at more than $300,000 and 14 at $100,000 or less, according to a multiple listing service. The majority -158 - fell between $150,000 and $200,000.

A $100,000 home would cost $1,098 per month for a mortgage, insurance, maintenance and utilities, Smith said. It would probably take two incomes for a household to afford the home.

The researchers found 137 vacant lots in central Nogales, Smith said. Most of them were on steep property where it would cost too much to build affordable housing. But they noticed rows of vacant upper stories above shops on Morley and Grand avenues.

"There's a lot of potential for reuse downtown," Smith said. "If you peel away (the coverings), you will often find there were windows."

The survey didn't cost any city funds, said Nils Urman, community and economic development director for Nogales. "We submitted a grant request last fall and the Arizona Department of Housing paid for the study."

Here are the researchers' recommendations:

1. Encourage growth of a vibrant city center.

This might include an "overlay zone" where some residential housing might be allowed in a commercial zone.

2. Encourage affordable residential units in the "adaptive reuse" of existing downtown commercial buildings.

3. Improve quality and maintenance of existing housing stock.

4. Alleviate possible overcrowding. This might mean expanding an existing home within the current build-out area or building a "granny unit" in back.

5. Encourage identification of neighborhoods and creation of neighborhood organizations. The city might offer help to these groups to get redevelopment grants.

The survey turned up some good news: about 40 percent of homeowners had paid off their mortgages, Poster said. The figures came from U.S. Census data from 2000.

"What does it take to get folks to pull a small amount of equity to make significant improvements?" he asked. He suggested the city provide technical assistance.

Poster and Smith asked for questions from the audience.

Infrastructure

What about the utility infrastructure of the city? Can it accommodate new housing units?

George Lineiro, planning and zoning director, said there was a potential for 1,000 new sewer connections. The city received a $60 million grant to upgrade the wastewater treatment plant in Rio Rico, he said.

If there's not enough water pressure for fire flow, a developer must install a sprinkler system or water lines, said one of the builders present.

"You can make the developer do it, but it will raise costs," Urman said.

There is virtually no housing going up in Nogales, Urman said. (An exception is the Villa Paraiso senior apartments on W. Mariposa Ranch Road.)

"We can't build affordable housing anymore," Poster said.

People in the bottom third of income levels will never be able to afford privately built housing unless they get some kind of subsidy, he told the Nogales International.